Iranian ‘arrangements’ could reshape Hormuz shipping

Iranian ‘arrangements’ could reshape Hormuz shipping | AGBI
June 17, 2026
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Shipping
Iranian ‘arrangements’ could reshape Hormuz shipping
By
John Crowley
June 15, 2026 3:17 PM
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Reopening the Strait of Hormuz under ‘Iranian arrangements’ leaves a lack of clarity about what the term means Copyright: Via Reuters
MoU between US and Iran
Hormuz to reopen once mines cleared
Tehran will retain influence over strait
The planned reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian “arrangements” could leave Tehran with significant influence over shipping movements through the waterway, maritime analysts have warned.
Draft details of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) say the chokepoint would reopen within 30 days after mines are cleared.
The tentative agreement, brokered by Qatar and Pakistan and due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, has been welcomed by Gulf mediators. But for shipowners, insurers and energy traders, the key question is how will Iran manage and police traffic through the narrow waterway once it reopens.
The 14-point MoU, published by Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency, includes a permanent ceasefire, the lifting of a US naval blockade within 30 days and the suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. It envisages at least $300 billion of reconstruction support for Iran from the US and its allies, plus a renewed Iranian commitment not to develop nuclear weapons.
Crucially for global shipping markets, it calls for the reopening of the strait within 30 days under “Iranian arrangements”. The meaning of that phrase remains unclear, and neither Washington nor Tehran has officially confirmed the reported details.
Since mid-March, dozens of vessels have rerouted north of the strait through a so-called Tehran toll booth near Larak Island . US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that he had authorised the “toll-free opening” of the strait and the lifting of the US naval blockade.
“Ships of the World, start your engines,” Trump wrote. “Let the oil flow!”
Focus on the arrangements
Arsenio Longo, founder of Berlin-based maritime intelligence company Huax, said the focus should be on the word “arrangements” rather than “toll”: “The phrase ‘no toll’ removes the most politically toxic framing, but it does not automatically remove the monetisation logic.”
Longo said the absence of a formal tariff did not mean Iran would lose influence over how ships moved through the waterway.
“That would leave Hormuz formally open, but not back to the pre-crisis model,” he said. “It would be managed passage: open in legal language, with an administrative and potentially commercial layer around who moves, when and under which instructions.”
Neil Quilliam, a Middle East and North Africa expert at Chatham House and AGBI columnist , said the wording could leave room for indirect charges even if formal tolls were prohibited.
“Although it looks as though the memorandum would rule out tolls, ‘under Iranian arrangements’ leaves scope for indirect charges framed as service fees,” Quilliam said. “These could include pilotage, escort services, traffic management or security provision.
“If this is the case, then Iran will be able to monetise transit through Hormuz without breaching its commitment to free passage. The key issue is whether those services remain optional or become a de facto condition of access.”
On Monday, Brent crude dropped 4 percent to $83.60 a barrel.
The International Maritime Organization welcomed the weekend’s developments, saying they would allow the UN shipping body to advance plans for the orderly evacuation of thousands of seafarers still stranded in the Gulf.
Even if Hormuz reopens within the proposed timeframe, shipping patterns may take longer to recover. The shipping association Bimco said the threat from mines would remain a concern until clearance operations were completed.
Further reading:
Commercial tankers adopt Iranian ‘dark fleet’ tactics
Suez Canal’s April revenue driven up by rise in oil tanker traffic
Iran crypto curbs may push Hormuz payments into the shadows
Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets compared the situation to that of the Red Sea, where shipping traffic remains well below pre-conflict levels despite a ceasefire agreement between the US and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels last year.
“Red Sea traffic is currently running around 56 percent lower than pre-conflict levels,” Croft wrote in a note, adding that many major shipping companies continue to avoid the route because of security concerns around the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint.
The experience suggests shipowners, insurers and charterers may remain cautious about returning to Hormuz long after mines are cleared and any agreement is signed.
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